OPEN July 15th '26 - Sharp bullish reaction on the back of the softer-than-expected CPI and PPI report has pushed the pair to the top of the range. Since then President Trump was on the wires stating that he is leaning toward expanding US military operations in Iran after days of briefings from top aides. Even though he did states that he does not prefer to put the troops on the ground, the oil prices knee jerked higher. Euro has no drivers to push the pair above the range for now, so I decided to take short position. If President Trump backtracks on the latest rhetoric I will look to close the position, but for now the short position is open and running. 

UPDATE:
"Vance said they are not going to send ground troops for regime change and that the US will not simply engage in endless bombing of Iran."

Given that VP Vance have backtracked on the Presidents comments, it gives me less of clarity on the further movement in the pair. However, EUR has no drivers to push above the range highs. For now I will maintain the short position, with Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and Fed speak in focus for today.

UPDATE: July 20th '26
CLOSED - The position is closed with TP hit. Treasury yields flipped to green in US Session, with headlines triggering broad USD demand, stating Yemeni Houthi spokesperson announces a ban on maritime navigation for Saudi-linked vessels, citing the blockade and saying the group is fully prepared to enforce the measure.